A Performance Calculator for S&P 500 Index Funds History

The S&P 500 calculator and also the fund Withdrawal Survival Depletion Test below examines 55 years of historic S&P 500 returns. Don't miss that, there is a lot there. It can show what did happen in the past, but the future is still unknown. Expectations are good though, and you should be sure to at least see a quick look at a summary to get the correct idea about the worth of S&P 500 Index investments. Both calculators use your input parameters. Crash duration has different interpretations, like commonly the time from the crash bottom to the next record high (which is positive gain all that time), or maybe duration between the two highs on each side of the bottom (which I like, as the lost time involved to get back to where you were). There is also a list of guided Examples below to show the calculator options, which can compare and show the effect of the past history and very importantly, show the effect of withdrawals (4% or any others). It offers an interesting view about the years of market gains. It can also show compounding of gains over a multi-year period, including the effect of withdrawals or additional investment. 2026 is an incomplete partial year so Annualized Return cannot be computed for the current year. But without 2026, it can show the Annualized Return values of the span.

But there is also a lot more here. This page is just the calculators (and some history statistics), but the page was far too long as one page, so the introductory material describing the S&P 500 and the market and the 4% Rule was reluctantly moved to a second page at A few Market Things you need to know if you don’t already. If you are new to the market, it's there if you want to see it.

My strong suggestion is:   Plan and start preparing decades early for retirement, because many years of compounding is your best investment tool. Reinvest all dividends and don't withdraw anything until retirement. It is going to happen, stopping your salary then, but you might have 30 years still left. So preparing for it should be a major thought, to avoid moving to the street. Take a minute now to consider the seriousness of that. Then the final amount available at retirement might be a huge pleasant surprise. Relatively massive withdrawals might be possible during retirement if there were enough investing years (see the Example 4 below).

Withdrawal Strategies

Continued withdrawals as dollar amounts can be dangerous. Fixed amounts need to be adjusted lower when the market is down, because a fixed dollar amount can seriously deplete the account when low. For example, fixed withdrawals of only $200 per month (foolishly starting at first year) depletes this S&P 500 fund in 18 starting years since 1970 (meaning, withdrawing soon after starting, before it grows, or in low periods, are dangerous). Whereas a percentage recomputes dollar amounts every year based on fund value. Withdrawals of course reduce your investment, and it should be obvious that it also seriously reduces your future compounded gains. The good plan is to add more investment all along instead of reducing it. So let your investment grow for maybe 30 years, and only start withdrawing at retirement, and that becomes an extremely different picture, and surely matches your retirement goals better too.

Withdrawing a percentage amount (percentage dollars adjusted every year, to be same percentage) is much safer, is less dollars when fund is low and more when high, but 12% withdrawal even starting at First year won't grow noticeably, but does not fail here (withdrawals that about match the growth rate do not grow).

There are several guided examples below. More money in the fund (after it grows) will always last longer, but technically, if no withdrawals, the fund does not go bust in the bad periods even if starting with only $300 in 1970 (the Lower Limit of $100 that defines Depletion can affect that test result).

See Example 8 here to show the idea about first investing 30 years for 30 more years of retirement without withdrawals. Then the example shows retirement withdrawals starting in 2000 (even if 1973-1974 and 2000 to 2008 were particularly bad times in the market). 56 years is a long time, but the calculator can be started in any year. Retirement should plan on a prior 30 or 40 years of investment growth first, if at all possible. Otherwise, you sure better make some other plan for retirement.

Annualized Return: The market is a different type of gain, up and down, very variable, some days even negative. Annualized gain is used to be more meaningful. Annualized Return is the hypothetical calculated FIXED interest rate between two dates that computes the same exact result that actually happened (accurate, maybe it did not actually happen that way, but the result is exactly the same in the same time), computing the exact Fixed interest rate that would give the same exact result each year, with the same money in your pocket then (like a fixed interest bank account), for understandable comparison purposes. It makes a more comprehensible comparison than the mixed market reactions. The Annualized Return excludes the value of any withdrawals (if any) during the span of years (but see the chart below). The Annualized Return cannot be shown if current partial year is included, because it is not complete, because we don't know the future.

Annualized Return % is what you want to see, it works like we imagine that Average Return might work, but doesn't. Average is about individual years, but Annualized Return includes compounding of the span of years (that actually happened).

NOTE: 2026 is not yet a complete year, and its Annualization must be omitted from the Depletion Test, because Annualized Return shown requires complete years, and it will inaccurate if the current partial year is included. Each year uses their year end result individually, but spans of full years are compounded over the years. Starting 12 months back from current date is a complete year, but annualization of YTD from 1 January is accurate only once on 1 Jan of next year.

Speaking here of STOCK or Fund dividends, NOT of dividends from directly held BONDS (meaning, not in a bond fund). Bonds pay an interest rate on the face price of the bond, but stock dividends come from the company's value. The stock dividend is that the company or fund has earned profit, and you as a stock owner are receiving a distribution of profit, which then reduces the company's value and stock price by the same amount.

How Stock and Fund Dividends Work

It's a huge mistake to think of stock dividends as New income to be withdrawn, because it is certainly not. Dividends are withdrawn from your fund, and to be sent it to you. Stock and fund dividends are instead simply a withdrawal of your own prior gains. That withdrawal becomes realized gain (distributed to you) and is taxed each year (is taxed if rein vested or not, because it was already withdrawn from your fund). The reinvestment increases the existing investment cost value by the same dollar value (so that amount will not be taxed again). The dividend is simply a withdrawal from your earned investment. But dividend reinvestment will put it back (as additional free shares) to keep the same investment value. You should know the whole picture.

The same is also true of bond fund dividends, however dividends are Not a withdrawal from directly owned bonds, which pay simple interest and are redeemed at maturity at the full face value that was purchased.

A company's publicly held capitalized value is their number of existing stock shares multiplied by one share's price value. Microsoft and Nvidia's stock value this way each computes to be $4 or $5 Trillions. The idea of the dividend is to distribute some of the company profit to the stock owners as "realized gain". The dividend money paid out (as a few dollars per share) was subtracted from the company's value, as a cash payment to you. This withdrawal reduces the company's value by millions, so the stock price (which reflects the remaining value of the company) is automatically and equally reduced by the same dollars per share when the dividend is paid. Due to that corresponding stock price drop, your value sum (of the paid dividend and your remaining stock value) remains exactly the same sum value as before the dividend, i.e., there is no gain on that day. Yes, the stock price did drop, and the fund value dropped, but you did not lose anything either — You already owned that stock distributing the dividend, and you do have that cash difference now (in your pocket, no longer in the stock value). It was simply a withdrawal, leaving a reduced remaining investment. There is no gain and no loss, not from the dividend on that day, but future gain will be reduced. The distribution was just from the company's stock value that you already owned before, but now is instead transferred to your cash. The best and most optimal thing to do is to reinvest that dividend, which retains today's fund value, and it will also become additional shares for greater future compounded growth.

Dividends are NOT New income. Dividends are simply a withdrawal of some prior unrealized gain, reducing your fund value by the same dollar amount. But if reinvested, then each 1% dividend gives you 1% new free shares (like 4 times a year), which is a huge long term plus.

Another page here has much more detail about stock and fund dividends. It also tells the way you can reinvest stock dividends.

Retirement: Much worse though, many people have never had a thought about funding their retirement, which is a catastrophic mistake. That surely takes years to achieve, and retirement certainly will happen, which is going to seriously need some funding.

Retirement is definitely going to happen, so try to imagine yourself, at age 65, beginning retirement (which could last 30 more years, say to age 95) with no salary, so no money, and no hopes. Many people retire with $100K or $300K of savings, which may sound big, but likely won't last 10 years. This will become mighty serious then, but true wonders can be worked if you have years to prepare for it. I am suggesting a S&P 500 fund very early, meaning now. The years are your best tool if smart enough to make use of them, the years of compounding is the least expensive way to prepare, and the more years, the better (so start early, meaning now). Use all the years you've got. Be smart, don't waste them. Your fund will also continue earning during those 30 years while withdrawing living expenses, but withdrawals will slow it, and could terminate it if insufficient. If you only have say ten years to start with, it will be a lot more expensive. Perhaps you will simply become rich and not need any more money, but that typically is not a good bet, and even otherwise, a little more can't hurt.

The years help much, but the best sufficient plan is to continue adding more money all along, each month or year, at least a few thousand a year, and more is better. Investing more during market bad times is a particularly good investment plan (to buy low, and then recover high). When it is low, don't jump in fast, not all at once, but do it 2 or 3 times spaced out to give it time to go lower. It likely will go some lower for awhile. A big crash can take quite awhile to bottom, often a few months. It's impossible for anyone to judge when it bottoms accurately, but buying any low is an improvement. In regular times, there are still more short mild times, down 10% or so, and investors buy in them too.

Bad times are NOT when its just a company or two, that is about them, and worse things conceivably could happen. Kodak and Polaroid were such cases, but that is only 2 of 500 companies. I am speaking to buy low in bad market times, when most companies are well down, not due to any fault of any of them. It's a market thing, not some one stock thing. Often a market crash occurs out of the blue when the common thinking is the market was too high to be supported and too many people are scared of it and sold their shares, or could be political or economic problems like inflation. So normally when the S&P 500 market index is substantially down, don't be scared and sell low, but don't skip buying in those bad times if you can raise the money, which actually is your best buying time, when most others are so scared and are panic selling, ensuring their permanent loss. It is a scary and very uncomfortable time, but you know the market has always recovered (sometimes worst times have taken a year of two, but you've got the years, and buying more low then will be profitable). Give the S&P 500 chart above some thought. You should also be sure to at least see a quick look at this one to get the past situations and the correct idea about the worth of S&P 500 Index investments. There are bad times, but most of it is great. The S&P 500 was started in 1956, 70 years ago, with the point that it has always recovered (obviously true, since it is still here).

Just throwing money into the market without knowing what you're doing will normally have a bad result, which is not the case when buying a S&P 500 fund, but otherwise, most market newcomers lose money, at least for awhile, because it needs learning a little about the market, about how to pick companies with good financials, good earnings that keep increasing, good cash flow, etc, and also with a good plan to increase future earnings. Investing in your favorite grocery store products, clothing, or cosmetic items is not often the best bet. Technical things, like AI (including the companies building the AI data centers), or semiconductors are often top gainers.

If that learning won't happen, a S&P 500 fund has a very good reputation for those not market savvy. It is not about picking companies. The S&P 500 is the 500 largest U.S. companies with public stock (and which were selected by the S&P 500). It goes up and down too of course, but it has always recovered. Pick a S&P 500 fund with a low fee (less than 0.1%). Except for this expense, all S&P 500 funds are otherwise essentially the same. Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab would be good. They all just try to match the S&P 500 Index, good or bad (See more detail at this page). The S&P 500 will vary year to year, some years will be +30% and very few years have been maybe as much as -50% (which is when buying low really pays off). But overall long term, the market the last 100 years is said to normally compute 10% every year, which is a good expectation. That does not literally mean every year, the years go up and down, but it means the final result is the exact same return as if it were that Fixed rate every year (called Annualized Return). My opinion (only a guess) is I think the market is doing a bit better now, which should continue, and maybe it should be 12%, and 12% compounding is a pretty big deal (approaching double gain more than 10%). There will always still be ups and downs, but don't sweat the small things day to day.

One warning, chasing the hottest companies is very volatile, and might work for awhile, but the strong bet is there will come the day it is suddenly way down. The saying is those that get rich chasing the hottest stocks do not stay rich long. Mutual funds (buying many companies) do Not invest in these for that dangerous reason.

Every year of 10% compounding means each year grows by 10%. Not in actuality, it goes up and down, but in final gain results. That smooths out the +30% and -50% numbers, but with the same result (called annualized return). 10% for 30 years compounding is 1.10³⁰ = 17.4x times the principle, without adding anything. But if the investment was $10K, that is only $174K. That won't be enough, so two choices: Principle investment of $100K is $1.74 million, but adding some extra all along is the easier plan. Plan on future inflation demands too, but the market should keep up with inflation (after awhile). Add a safety margin for unexpected happenings. FWIW, a good goal for a couple retiring today is At Least $2 million. Double that would be safer and more comfortable. Most will think that making millions sounds impossible, but ample preparation and the years can do it (but you need to stick with it). Years of future inflation could double that cost a time or two. The better senior homes today (that offer real Assisted Living with guaranteed entry if and when needed) typically have about a 3/4 Million deposit on first day, just in case. Because when incapacitated, you likely would not be able to pay even if you had the money. Think in those terms, it is real. There are of course much cheaper places but they do nothing medical, no nurses, etc, but medical problems can arrive in retirement. You can leave any excess for inheritance to your family beneficiaries, which seems a good duty to plan.

It takes years to plan and prepare for your retirement, but long term compounding is very effective. The first years don't build so much while the investment is small, but when the fund grows to a lot of money, it takes off. Like it takes money to make money. If the money has years to grow, that really helps. The years of compounding are a really strong help. Meaning, be smart, start early, as big as you can.

Remember, the bottom line is that retirement will arrive, and will no longe have a salary, which could then last for 30 more years (to age 95). Hopefully your finances last too. Please give this some thought, now. Look into it, try to believe it. It is going to become very important to you some day, and then there is not much you can do at retirement age. You need to have already made your millions. That can take awhile, so you need to be started.

Conventional advice is that near retirement time, your money should be moved to safe places, like Treasury bonds, so it will not go down when you need it, and so there is no need to worry about it. Another thought is with enough extra savings, even if it is down 50%, it will still be enough. It will still recover, but the timing is unknown.

One purpose of these examples is to show some of the controls possible in the calculator, but the really big point is that if no withdrawals, 50 years of S&P 500 gains will be absolutely awesome. Retirement time will come, ready or not, and you need to realize that you should get started on planning funds for it NOW. Time is the tool that works, but if you wait too long, this huge opportunity diminishes.

Guided Examples of Using the Calculator

But sorry, the current dollars in the examples have not been updated lately.

If not withdrawing, the fund will not go bust (but could go below your minimum). Very bad times in the past have dropped it to near 50%, but not to very near zero. Hopefully some newer market rules will help. That will certainly be very worrisome then and requires waiting for its recovery, but if you let it ride, it will recover, but retirees may not have that option. The market has always recovered (but which sometimes could take a year or two). But withdrawing it then just makes the loss real and permanent. The S&P 500 companies are very well established, and it will come back. Following here are a few examples of that in the last 50 years.

This is looking at some choices with investment starting with $25,000, to show the good effect of minimizing withdrawals. The example results are more in agreement with the 2026 totals, but it has been nearly a year and the market has grown. But the point is still the same. The exact result values in these examples will vary from the last 2026 result entered in the calculator chart (the text in these examples below is Not updated with every days current price change, but the calculator itself will recalculate from the last price entered.) You can of course then adjust the values to fit your goals. Again, these results are computed from the past years in history, and future results are not known. The standard qualifying words are: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Examples 1-10:

1. Start at 1970: (55 years until today) If with no withdrawals of any kind, $25K grew to $9+ Million today. This is the pages initial default case. The message is: Start your investing early. It will be all-important when you near retirement age.
So try some things in the calculator. Bad years are survivable, but withdrawals may not be. (Again, the future is unknown.)

  1 Show this setup in calculator (Example 1 just restores the initial chart).

2. However, withdrawing all dividends (from $25K start, but never setting up reinvestment of dividends) instead reduces gains of less money working, which seriously drops to "only" $1.7 Million, plus $412K withdrawals (instead of $9+ million if no withdrawals). That result is an 85% loss of the gains possible, and is same as an annualized loss of 3.3% every year. That was over 55 years, but DO NOT ignore the long term importance of reinvesting dividends. The dividend may be small, like maybe 2%, but it repeats and compounds and grows, every year. And this certainly also applies equally to any and all withdrawals, which are very nonproductive long term.

  2 Show this setup in calculator

3. Or instead of dividends, continuous withdrawal of $100 per month (totaling $65K in 55 years) dropped the fund to $17K in 1974 (which was particularly bad times), but it survived, and grew to $2.9 Million in 53 years. However that $65K of withdrawals cost $3.5 Million of the gains in example 1 (over 53 years). Perhaps you might have only 30 years to invest until retirement, but then you might also still have 30 years of retirement too. Give that some thought concerning withdrawals. However withdrawing anything so early is far from wise. The fund needs to build more money to survive bad times.

  3 Show this setup in calculator

A few more things you might see here about how things work.

• But change the withdrawal to $200/month, and it goes bust in 1989 with $46K of withdrawals ($200 busts in 15 starting years). Black Monday in October 87 was the largest ever one day drop of the market, 22.6%, but that quickly recovered, and market rules are more strict now. But the bust really wasn't due to the market, it was due to the withdrawals. Look at the numbers. The $2400 annual withdrawals (10% to 50+% a year) had been draining the fund since it started. The fund would have been $235K at the end of 1989 if no withdrawals. But that $46K of $200 withdrawals cost the entire $6.4 Million future total. The trick is getting past the bad times, and withdrawing is the worst thing to do, so at least pause withdrawing then. Withdrawals require having money to withdraw, and recoveries require leaving something to work with.

  More money in the fund does last longer. Change the $25000 to $30000 and click Test, and the $200/month withdrawal does not fail starting in 1970.

  However, always check the Depletion Failure chart too. The 1970 start may be fine, but many start years do not fail at $200/month withdrawal, but about ten more start years also fail starting up near 2000. These have too few years to grow before the bad times.

  The Main Point here is to know to let the fund grow without withdrawals the first few decades, to first grow enough to survive the bad times, and still be there for the recovery that is coming. That greater growth (without withdrawals) also provides considerably more retirement money too, which should be a major concern. You should realize that early withdrawals are very costly, costing greatly more future earnings than they return now.

• Very important points: Instead starting 1970 with $25K and withdrawing a small percentage, like 5% a year (recomputed each year), would have withdrawn 539K and ended today with $610K in this example), and then very much more after it grows some. To prevent excesses, limiting that 5% with a $1000/month maximum (button 3) would have also survived today (with $919K, but total fund earnings would total about $1.3 Million instead of $6.4 Million).
  But of course, holding off on withdrawals until retirement needs it is the correct answer. Starting $5000 a month withdrawals ($60K/year) in 2000 (with a bad decade ahead) for 23+ years still leaves $4.9 M in the fund today. However starting that fund after 1983 still fails all starting years.

While it may not be intuitive during the bad times of gloom and doom and worry about the market, but actually, those low points are exactly the right time to be adding more money then (to buy low), making recovery gains grow dramatically. The low points would be the worst time to sell it off. It recovers, but it could take a year or two.

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4. This might get your attention... a more expected procedure. 30+ years S&P 500 investment followed by 22+ years of $60K per year withdrawals in retirement.

Continual withdrawals beginning Day One is NOT a normal plan. To make the fund count with greater gains, let it build for many years until retirement time, and only then start withdrawing to help replace salary. Or maybe if already retired and you have some savings that are not earning anything, but need it to help with immediate withdrawals for living expenses. The S&P is capable with higher gains that have averaged about 10% a year. Some years more, and some years less, and some even negative several times. And it has been a BIG negative (near -50%) a few times. Again, the S&P 500 is the stocks of the 500 largest USA companies, relatively safe IMO. Market crashes can certainly still occur, but they always recover eventually. But when moving savings, do realize there is market risk, stocks can lose value (and unless it is IRA or 401, moving is likely a taxable event).

  4 Show this example in the calculator

But always check the Depletion test. This example does go bust at 4 start years near 2000. But deferring these withdrawals even five years supports the withdrawals to make a big difference.

This past data includes several really poor years (possibly typical), so caution is advised in the future real world. This idea is to let it grow to a substantial value before starting withdrawals, and then keep an eye out on the gain of future years then. If the average gain is keeping up with the average withdrawal, it will work. The average S&P gain has been near 11%, but 2000 began three years averaging about -15% (which then of course still did recover). Starting 1970 looks real good, but the Test shows a few failure starting years around 1997 (because the new fund had not grown much before the bad years starting at 2000).

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5. An IRA account has a $6000 annual contribution limit, which increases a bit every few years. This example starts Dec 31 1979 with first $6000, and then continuously add the maximum tax-free contribution of $500 per month ($6000 per year IRA limit until 2004, contribution totaling $150K in the 25 years). It grew to $1 million in that time (which included the 2000s decade), and to $5.9 Million in the next 22 years until now. There will be a lot of tax owed on the IRA (regular income tax rate too, no capital gains in IRA), but you would like that at retirement time, it certainly seems worthwhile. If it were Roth, it would be tax free and also allow larger contributions.

  5 Show this setup in the calculator

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6. Start at 2000: About the worst staring year, the entire 2000 decade were poor. But Buy low, when it is down, except it gets worse and more attractive in 2008. The 2000s were really bad times with two severe crashes in the decade (2001 and 2008), so bad it didn't recover until 2010. But if no withdrawals of any kind, $25K still grew to $124K today, which is not too shabby, about 5x, and 7+% Annualized Return (even starting in 2000). And the Test result shows this same thing (as no withdrawals), starting in every year, same $109K if starting in 2000.

  6 Show this setup in the calculator, starting at about the worst time.

But then instead of withdrawing anything, adding more money at the low points is the special opportunity to see dramatically greater gains in the recovery. Adding $25K more in 2002 (doubling original investment when price was down about 40%, and things looked so bad) would total $282K in 2021. We can't time the bottom, so had this been the plan, you'd done it earlier, and continued adding all along.

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7. Start at 2009: (12 years) These were the better good times, building from the previous 2008 lows, and if with no withdrawals, $25K in 2000 grew to $165K in about that time. But economic and political pressures can hurt the market, so there is always risk. But so far, the market has always recovered and continued the gains.
  7 Show this setup in the calculator

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Perhaps of the most interest to the concept, 8 and 9 are results of two of what turned out to be the worst-timed bad investment times (unavoidable because the future is unknown. But it does recover.)

8. Start a $25K investment at 1973 right before the 1974 crash and see it drop 40% then. But don't touch it for 51 years, and then start withdrawing 8% in 2000 (just in time for a really BAD decade, which turned out to be some of the worst scary times, but your fund had resources by then to withstand it). So from 2000, start 22 years of retirement withdrawals totaling $1 M, varying widely but averaging perhaps about $42K annually (about $3500 monthly, but varying). And it still leaves about $670K remaining today, maybe for inheritance (often a goal). The entire cost to you was the original $25K (this is past history, it cannot predict the future, but there are better times than this example hits).

  8 Show this setup in the calculator

However, the abnormally large 9% withdrawals in the first three years of the 2000 downturn were detrimental. But if instead of 9%, try withdrawing a fixed $4000 a month (button 2, starting at year 2000 again) works if starting in 1973, but this fails early if not starting until the 1980s. Or limit it a bit by doing both, but limited to the smallest option 3, which leaves more in the fund. A large fixed withdrawal in a small fund hits the down years heavy. Whereas a reasonable percentage (assuming dollar amount is readjusted each year) is a smaller withdrawal in those down years. But even $200/month starting at Day One (when fund is small) fails several starting years.

But also try Option 3 then. A good plan is to use button option 3, with say BOTH of the same 10% and $5000 withdrawals in Option 3 as limits on each others extremes, which might limit a few years to be a little less, but which lets it build more, and then it runs in all years without failure. And it leaves quite a lot to provide inheritance. A percentage withdrawal may not be so much when the fund is low, but it won't go to zero and fail (if withdrawal dollars are adjusted accordingly each year). We can't know the future, but the total of all the many years is the really huge effect.

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9. Start investment at 2000 right before those crashes. Start withdrawing 6% in 2003 (right after the first crash), which is 20 years of withdrawals totaling near $28K for average of about $1.4K annually, with $40K remaining today. The last decade (2010s) saw good market growth, doubling in spite of the withdrawals. This growth time is short, but starting with 2x more money would have 2x greater results. To get that greater money (still trying to get your attention), simply starting ten years earlier would have made the 6% be near $6K average annual income assistance, with $175K left. Or 20 years earlier would be about $29K withdrawals with $850K left. Or 30 years earlier for $51K withdrawals with $1.5 Million left. Time is the awesome tool.

  9 Show this setup in the calculator

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10. Starting the fund just before bad years is Not the best plan, but we can't know the future. It is only shown as a worst case. But one example that works anyway. Start in 1970 with $25K, and then with button 5, contribute $500/month until 2000 ($186K more) when worth $500K, and thereafter withdraw $4000 a month ($48K a year for $1.2 million, but limited to 10%), which still remains worth nearly $321K then Except if it were are an IRA, the large gain would surely make the RMD be greatly higher.

  10 Show this setup in the calculator